Umineko no Naku Koro Ni : Third Move – Applying the Theory that The Culprit Has One or More Accomplices

As usual I’m putting restrictions on these theories so it’s possible to reach deductions without getting too sidetracked. Following theories are only based on the restricted claims in red.  The culprit is the mastermind and is in Rokkenjima and he has help from somebody else. The 18 people limit are those we see on-screen so no one is lurking in the shadows. No Mr. X is involved.  This time I’m not throwing down names. I’m not pointing any fingers. I’ll leave the final deductions open as it’s easy to see that there are people within the 18 people limit who fit perfectly the profiles said below.

The Culprit has an accomplice
The accomplice is within the 18 people limit
The accomplice is only one

Everyone knows that they meet once a year in that isolated place. This year especially due to Dr Nanjo’s diagnosis that Kinzo’s life was at its limit. Everyone made sure to be there that day to extort some money from Krauss, see their father for the last time (possibly) but more importantly to discuss the inheritance with Krauss before Kinzo dies.

Since everyone knows that pretty much everyone will be there that person could easily plan a big scale operation to murder everyone that would succeed Kinzo. In other words, the family conference is a perfect set up for this ceremony aka getting rid of the Ushiromiya.

One of the things I have to assume that the ringleader is a crafty, intelligent and extremely meticulous person. He/she many look it but I’m sure that must the case. After all appearances may fool us but if he or she is definitely capable enough to come up with this plan, that person must be all the we think he/she is and is only acting incapable on purpose.

The mastermind might have an accomplice in crime, no, I think there is a high chance that the culprit does have one. That accomplice is not necessarily as cunning as the ringleader but he/she follows the mastermind’s instructions to the letter. He knows the risks but follows blindly the instructions in hopes of love, praise, benefit or duty. Another thing I have to assume is that if there is a person aiding the culprit then both of them should have spent a reasonable amount of time together to come up with this plan prior to the family conference. Of course, this accomplice would follow the mastermind only because it benefits him/her greatly or because he does it out of his own will or because he has no other choice. Which one would be most fitting?

This accomplice might be so devoted to the ringleader (which I think he/she is) that he might not care if he is killed as long as the ringleader is successful (since it happens a lot). We’re talking about a person whose devotion is so great that he would put his duty, love, or friendship on the line for the mastermind. However we have to question what normal person would agree to this.  No matter how much that accomplice appreciates the other person he would not normally agree to these terms. This person, who I believe isn’t as crafty as the mastermind, must not think much of himself (possibly never did), mentally unstable (may not show it) but sane and insane enough to go through with the plan. In the accomplice’s mind doing this could be consider an honor, duty, or a way to rebel against the others. Does such person exist in Umineko? and does this accomplice knows that the mastermind will get rid of him in the end?

The Culprit has an accomplice
The accomplice is within the 18 people limit
There are multiple accomplices

It isn’t uncommon to assume that there are more than 2 culprits in this game. I’ve considered this possibly myself a few times but I can’t deny that this theory also has its own issues.  Why? Because the idea that there are more than 2 culprits makes it harder for the mastermind which makes me to  also greatly doubt this theory.

I’m assuming that the mastermind definitely possesses an extraordinary control over his accomplices in crime either by trust (one sided) or coercion (fear). He must be sure that they will not betray him at any moment and that they will fully cooperate no matter what. Thus extreme sense of duty or a sharing common goal is something that the accomplices must have in common. Still finding accomplices within the 18 people limit is not an easy task as it looks since one of them could easily think of backing down at any moment thus ruining everything. So why do it?

If there are more than 2 culprits then they must absolutely share a common objective whereas as with only 2 I can deduce that one of them is doing all the thinking and the other is simply following orders.  Not to mention, the mastermind could be forcing the other person into it in some way we don’t know. I’m not implying that it isn’t possible but just harder to get people to cooperate as the number increases. It’s easy to think that killings would be easier if the number of people working together increases (wolf sheep puzzle) but things could easily get messier at the same time. Therefore, the chances that of one of the accomplices messing up increases as the numbers of accomplices increases. In other words the theory that a large number of people are involved isn’t as strong as one that with less number of culprits. Do you agree with this thinking?

Also having more than 2 accomplices would ruin the unconditional partner in crime theory (not completely though) after all I can believe that a single person could  be ‘trick’ or fooled into committing such crime but getting two or more accomplices to join you? Even if the greed overwhelms them they would surely doubt if their own lives are in danger.

Lastly so far the culprit has demonstrated an immense amount of precision carrying out the sacrifices even taunting the survivors. Could we apply here the saying here that ‘if you want something done right you have to do it yourself’? Having more people conspiring would be harder to manage no matter how well trained they are or how well a plan is executed. In other words, getting more accomplices could be just asking for trouble after all. Would the mastermind take that risk?

The Culprit has an accomplice
There are only 18 in Rokkenjima
The accomplice is an outside force

This isn’t the strongest theory but I wouldn’t say impossible ( assuming that there are only 18 in Rokkenjima). Multiple accomplices also applies to the theory that an outside force would be behind everything  or is just another accomplice supporting the culprit on everything from the outside. Another family or organization could behind the killings or at least helping in some way without us knowing. One of the people in Rokkenjima could have made an alliance with that organization to slay the Ushiromiya family and all possible witness in exchange for some reward. Still, it’s very questionable that the real culprit would take the risk of asking somebody from the outside for help because it would mean that there will be more people that know his terrible secret.  But also because what kind of reward be good enough to do this crime? Whether the outside force changes its plans and betrays its piece (kills him too) later that is a different matter. Now why would the culprit take the risk of putting his fate into somebody  else’s hands? Is nobody else outside of Rokkenjima really involved in the killings?

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9 thoughts on “Umineko no Naku Koro Ni : Third Move – Applying the Theory that The Culprit Has One or More Accomplices

  1. I think there’s at least one person amidst the 18 who is not hard to turn into an accomplice.

    Dr Nanjo’s last words before death in 3rd arc were about a sick grandchild. I don’t think you would worry about a sick grandchild before your death if he/she had just a stomachache (like Ange had). So if the good doctor has a grandchild who is horribly ill then he is not exactly hard to motivate into cooperating by promising the best care available for the grandchild (using the Ushiromiya fortune). The doctor is one of the more suspicious people on the island anyway and never gets killed in the first twilight…

    • I’ve always wondered Why does Dr. Nanjo spends so much time with Kinzo (who is obviously crazy) fooling and playing chess, etc when he has other things to do. But as for an accomplice.. I can’t really see Nanjo carrying out the killings. I’d think his job would be restricted to giving false diagnosis, hiding evidence as well as providing fake alibis.

      • Nanjo has been friends with Kinzo long before the entire ‘occult’ fascination appeared. He does run his own clinic on Niijima but pays visits to Rokkenjima to check on Kinzo’s health and other family members problems (Jessica’s asthma for instance). Although most of Kinzo’s friends did abandon him because of the occult thing, Nanjo doesn’t seem to be bothered by it. Although he does nag Kinzo on his drinking problems, since it does affect his health.

  2. Another family or organization could behind the killings or at least helping in some way without us knowing.

    If you’re looking for something like this then look no further than Kyrie’s family, Sumadera. They’re a very similar family to the Ushiromiyas, but are stated to be a lot more shadier than them. Although I doubt Kyrie really was okay with them, since she married out of the family.

    • I also doubt that Kyrie would agree to those terms. I think it’s easier to doubt an outsider to be capable of the killings than someone from the very family even though they hate each other’s guts. Even if I doubt her innocence it wouldn’t be consistent with Rudolf dying and herself being killed unless there’s a perfect trick they’re using to fool us. So her family and not necessarily Kyrie might be involved in the killings. But you have to agree that Kyrie’s craftiness and cleverness makes her a perfect suspect for the crimes. Maybe it’s too ‘obvious’ for her to be the culprit?

      • Depends on what you think is ‘too obvious’. Think back to Eva – she was one of the more suspicious people in EP 1, since her alibi was rocky for the 1st twilight. But after EP 3 you might as well count her out as the culprit, because she’s a massive red herring.

        I think Kyrie is only ‘too obvious’ in her background. But the game explicitly states she has no relations with her former family, besides her alienated father.

  3. The Culprit has an accomplice.
    The accomplice is within the 18 people limit.
    There are multiple accomplices .
    One or more accomplices are killed at somepoint of the story and presented as sacrifices for the Twilights.
    At least one accomplice is a servant.

    That’s what I believe in so far.

  4. Meh, thought of some more.

    “One or more accomplices might have double personality or something like that”
    “Maria is one of the accomplices”
    “There is a secret person X. This does not mean that Kinzo is dead. If no X person exists, there exist more than two accomplices, at least one being a servant.”

    I think it’s fairly ok to say it by now. Not only is Maria twisted and completely crazy, she hates her mother and is wants her dead. She is the ally of the golden witch. In the first arc, Genji locks everyone in the parlor after Natsuhi locks herself, George, Jessica and Battler in Kinzo’s room. But somehow, the killer enters and kills everyone. Assuming that Maria couldn’t have killed 3 people by herself, she unlocked the room for the killer to enter.

    For the first sentence, I just say this because it seems that Maria is just crazy. And so is that old lady, after all, she could be considered to be in the same position as Maria, being Virgilia ally of Beatrice. This could even go for Eva if she is is an accomplice. Meh, it’s the only real thing I kinda believe in but don’t know completely for sure.

    As for the last one, it is just based on what I’ve seen recently. It makes a lot of sense if you ask me. I’m reading the visual novels right now, just finished reading all of episode one. Having the knowledge I have of the anime, it is really interesting to watch if you suspect of the servants. You’ll notice more than once that two servants are left alone. Like when Eva and her husband are killed in the closed room. Everyone has an explanation of where they were and why they couldn’t have been the killer. But there are always seem to be two servants. Like, when Genji and Kannon went for Eva since dinner was ready, only to find that she didn’t answer back and this was the event of the closed room. Both Kannon and Genji say that there was no drawing when they went to find them, and yet when Kannon came back, there was a drawing on Eva’s door. This is what leads me to one last way of thinking:

    “At least one of the accomplices is betrayed, or at least one of the accomplices betrays the other accomplices&culprit”

    It gets more confusing with this last sentence, but some actions of some characters could be explained. Like, if we assume that Kannon painted the magic circle on the storagehouse where the bodies of the first twilight were “hidden”, then assuming that he betrays the others he then goes after the culprit, only to be killed in the place where everyone later finds Kinzo’s burned body.

    • Busy week has been busy.

      The servants in the first 2 EP of the game are the ones who find the bodies. They’ve had enough time to prepare for everything before anyone could have even known of the bodies. In addition, their furniture nature that they have to obey all orders makes them suspects for many of the killings. Not to mention, they are ‘separated’ from the group many times since they’re suspected to be the killings.

      Hmph, so far Kanon and Shannon have someone they like so they would show hesitation to kill their beloved. Genji is Kinzo’s closest ‘friend’ as furniture goes at least and for all we know he’s all alone so he is even more suspicious than both of them combined. Also if we suspect Maria to be involved (for what we’ve seen she is very involved in this game) then she could easily joined whatever group Beato is supporting to carry out the killings as long as she gets her revenge on her mom.

      I’m glad that the anime has made you check out the sound novels. I think everyone who watches the anime or likes the When They Cry series should. The games are extremely gripping, well explained and the pace is just right unlike the anime counterpart. Yeah, the games give you additional clues and it also made you think different of some characters. Like, the servants’ behavior for example that you mentioned. In the anime you don’t see that well how things are in the mansion and how some events actually played out making you doubt of some of the characters.

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