In which I give you my solution to Umineko

You are the culprit –

It’s end of 2010 and so the truth will be eventually revealed. Meanwhile, it’s Ryukishi07 vs. Keikakudoori in which the author has the final say. This is where I explain Umineko’s riddle. This has nothing to do with EP8.

Looks like we’re run out time. As we speak the answer to Umineko should be soon known  once EP8 is released. This game however has nothing to do with it and that answer isn’t something we know for now. This is in which cat box is forced opened. In which the pieces of the puzzle together from the beginning until now must be put together.

Murders

Not random in nature. They were planned out. The murders are too precise to assume they could’ve been committed in the heat of the moment. An accident? An afterthought? The closed room murders were purposely committed. It was a well thought out plan that took time to scheme and to carry it out.

They were plot murders made to follow the epitaph made by Kinzo. Now that it’s been stated that the epitaph was done by Kinzo himself then who could’ve known it other than those who visit Rokkenjima island? The siblings, cousins, and servants all knew of it. We don’t assume that it the sender of the letter was someone who didn’t know this piece of information therefore from by this premise we already knew it was somebody who visited the mansion after Kinzo put up the epitaph with the portrait. Everyone who couldn’t possibly know of it was excluded.

The murders must’ve been committed by someone currently on the island. It’s impossible for the culprit to exist outside of Rokkenjima assuming this culprit is doing the job himself.
At this point it was already denied the possibility he culprit was someone  not mentioned in the story. This person had to be well familiar with the mansion and its inhabitants.

(It’s not like there’s professional killers getting in and out of the closed circle) S.S Van Dine 17 in case it is applicable.

In which we can give them a meaning based on the nature of the crime. In which it isn’t involved the actual deciphering of the riddle.

Behold the sweetfish river running through my beloved hometown.
The path to the important place.

You who seek the Golden Land, follow its path downstream in search of the key.
Go through the path that will lead you to the entrance of the most crucial place.

As you travel down it, you will see a village.
In that village, look for the shore the two will tell you of.

There sleeps the key to the Golden Land.
Where *that* lies.

The one who obtains the key must then travel to the Golden Land in accordance with these rules.
Then one can go down the path

On the first twilight, offer the six chosen by the key as sacrifices.
The first victims are the most crucial therefore anything else is put on hold. This is the moment where an extra body or fake death are planned.

On the second twilight, those who remain shall tear apart the two who are close.
Remove those who stand in the way the most after the first six. Where it is designated who should be next according to the script and limited in options.

On the third twilight, those who remain shall praise my noble name.
Because even the culprit needs time reload and set up the bomb in case of failure.

On the fourth twilight, gouge the head and kill.
Because no one would doubt it’s instant death.

On the fifth twilight, gouge the chest and kill.
Because no one would doubt it’s instant death.

On the sixth twilight, gouge the stomach and kill.
Because no one would doubt death is but a matter of time.

On the seventh twilight, gouge the knee and kill.
Because the rest can get skeptical and because a different methods are required.

On the eighth twilight, gouge the leg and kill.
Because the rest can get skeptical and because a different methods are required.

On the ninth twilight, the witch shall revive, and none shall be left alive.
Because there’s no escape for those who don’t reason. And because of an illusion whoever has gone missing or found dead can only be but dead.

On the tenth twilight, the journey shall end, and you shall reach the capital where the gold dwells.
The culprit or victor has already found where the gold is. Now that there’s no obstacles the reward awaits.

The witch shall praise the wise and bestow four treasures.
Because many possible motives or “Why dunnit” are to be stated.

One shall be all the gold from the Golden Land.
Because a story also needs a most common motive.

One shall be the resurrection of all the dead souls.
A justification for the crimes.

One shall be the resurrection of the love that was lost.
A innocent hope for a miracle.

One shall be to put the witch to sleep for all time.
After that role was completed the one should also has depart with everyone.

Sleep peacefully, my most beloved witch, Beatrice.
The end of journey where none are to be left alive thus the cat box is constructed for the first time.

The red puts a restriction on the number of people on Rokkenjima. It makes sense since this is a closed circle. Even if there were additional parties working behind the scenes the number of them would be extremely limited. The number of people can only increase slightly in the game, therefore we believe one of the original suspects is the culprit. The number of people don’t change. What changes is our interpretation of the characters in them. Furudo Erika turns out to someone who doesn’t exist or that deceases to exists. Erika can be considered the “Beatrice”, “The witch” of those episodes as she is also someone who isn’t there yet isn’t. Take note how no one except Natsuhi in Ep5 encounters Beatrice whenever Erika is around. If Erika is “minus” then Beatrice is also a “minus”.

From the time the game board is set and the typhoon hits Rokkenjima it becomes a closed circle where no one can get in or out of the island. The Ushiromiya came in a ferryboat to Rokkenjima. It’s assumed something similar would be required to reach it. The conditions of being a perfect circle guarantees that there won’t be additional third parties entering the island who turn out to be the killers. The culprit must have already reached the island by the time the victims did or in all likeness already existed on Rokkenjima. Simply the culprit must exist on Rokkenjima before the typhoon hits the island.

Of course,  no high technology or any machinery is to be used to reach the island other than the ones mentioned by the story are accepted which could let a“X” character never before introduced enter it.  No supernatural forces other than the ones mention can make a character drifted away on Rokkenjima. This would violate the close circle premise making it impossible to reason out a culprit we haven’t heard of before.

This same premise applies to everything that deals with any methods of entry to Rokkenjima. Of course this means that even if our theories rely on a X character this person must already be present on Rokkenjima on that day.

[The 5th Move]

Same as a room can be divided in parts. The island is divided into several parts. Outdoors and indoors. Outdoors are the rose garden, the paths connecting the buildings, the shore and port. Indoors. There are for buildings on Rokkenjima. The Mansion, the guest house, the chapel, the second mansion. The mansion is divided as such the lobby, dining room, the parlor, Krauss’s study, Natsuhi’s room, the VIP room, the guest room in the 1st floor, Kinzo’s study, Jessica’s room. It’s implied that there are many rooms but they’re usually locked.

The guesthouse is a two story building. The first floor – lobby, servants’ room. Second floor – the cousins’ room, the next room over. Guest rooms, the library room.  We accept the bodies that go missing and any tricks and illusion to take places i any of the places.  Any other places that are forgotten to be mentioned here are also valid. We, however, exclude any buildings and places not connected to the island as no murder happen there.

The 9th Move - “Trusting the Decalogue”

Mystery exists as a tool to provide the tale with a structure, give them form. We can take it as a game of chess where certain moves are allowed while others aren’t.  By following these we can jot down possibilities based on how greatly they’ll affect the tale. For example, futuristic devices should not be allowed to exist, while being more than more than one culprit is debatable.

Mystery should aid the reader in deciphering parts of the story into a more manageable equation which should be without a doubt solvable. Whether the reader has what it takes is beside the point.

Despite the fact it has never been stated how much this tale follows Knox’s Decalogue, it’s implied it does in great part. Breaking of the rules has been limited to the reader’s own misinterpretations the events or the rules, and how events in the story are twisted.
Van Dine’s Rules have only been introduced in the 7th Game. It’s debatable to believe a whole “20 Rules of them” apply to this tale. We should focus only on the most critical.
Put simply they exist to get a confirmation from the Witch’s side to either deny or approve them.

Fantasy is the method the the player’s opponent uses in this game. The Witch’s side claims the murders were committed with magic, the reader says the opposite. How much fantasy is real isn’t the point. The point is to prove how fantasy wasn’t involve in the crimes from October 4th-6th. I will deny the existence of magic as long as it is mention to be responsible for the serial murders. The culprit is certainly human once we open the cat box! Otherwise it’ll be impossible for capture him or her!

(Of course we refer to the fact the culprit possesses a human body)

Magic exists for those who believe in it. As we state here because of the little effect in the outside world, it’s possible for magic to exist yet continue to be unnoticeable. We interpret as “believing” and having “hope”. There’s no point in point in believing in the type magic that deceives and is evil in nature. Illusions must return to being Illusions.

1st Game

A Family Head passes away. The truth is kept a secret. Siblings fight amongst each other to reach their goals. A prideful woman keeps a lie alive and because of her people end up dying. All pieces are introduced for the first time. Was it a real or just the 1st unofficial Game board?

This is the moment this tale becomes a cat box and cat box.

2nd Game

Negotiations that are never reached.  Servants who are not to be trusted. Characters that are let alone are mysteriously killed. A regretful decision of lying. A good end for the falsehood. Isn’t the wolf always in a sheep’s clothing? The culprit is likely who one believes it is.

3rd Game

People’s own hatred and ambitions turn to delusions. We believe in what we wished to believe even if they’re lies. Delusions are nothing but delusions. Another trick of a dead man walking. A truth shut inside a box because of an illusion of another lie in which the innocent becomes the culprit of yet another tragedy. In all likeness the culprit was defeated.

4th Game

A man’s sin. The reason why people must die on this day. A fictitious trial created by a dead man with no winners from the start.  Another shared lie where everyone who does their part is eliminated one by one. For so much brutality the culprit shows mysterious kindness. In the end, the one was never able to solve the riddle after all. The culprit is a woman.

5th Game

The introduction of a manipulated detective. An uncooperative and biased POV from the beginning of the tales are to blame for past tragedies. A person who wasn’t supposed to be there is. Murders disguised under a promise of revenge against a mother who confuses reality and fantasy.  The most suspicious one turns out to be innocent. The culprit should be one with no family being murdered.

6h Game

A contradicting game. A contradicting Game Master.  Contradicting reasoning. A cruel Witch’s redemption, perhaps way the game was from the start. A reflection from a story we hardly knew or understood from years ago. A game that purposely goes against the rules of a genre. The illusion of a Witch, a culprit, and the detective share the same identity. The one behind the detective is but the culprit.

7th Game

Alternate realities are the other faces of a puzzle. The one who wasn’t supposed to exist, does. In which a Witch’s game the impossible is possible.  The darkness that everyone possesses is exposed. The errors that make no one be left alive and the creation of a cat box of fantasy. That “person” is someone we already know.

The 7th Move The 8th Move

Rudolf

Motive. Money.  An egotistical, greedy man with little care for others. His own vices and trickery led him to where he is now. Revenge? Nonexistent except to be carried out for those he betrayed in the past. He cared the most for his own desires. Always apologizing and not thinking before he acted.

Kyrie

Motive. Love. Personal gain. Superficially calm but with a possessive nature. Kyrie made a promise to herself to not be fooled again and to get that money no matter what. The revenge she holds is against those who undermine her new found happiness in a hostile family. The money should be the second priority.

Natsuhi

Motive. Money was never the issue. Natsuhi had the necessity to belong. She prioritized her goals over everyone else’s safety.  Her wish to preserve the Head’s honor who didn’t respect her turned into the biggest aid to the culprit’s scheming.

Krauss

Motive. The inheritance. Motive. Be free. The closest to becoming the next head who couldn’t solve the riddle himself. He was never going to allow anyone know of this failure. Krauss always felt he was never coming to surpass his successful father and believed he was always mocked by him. He even puts his entire family in danger to escape the law.

Eva

Motive. Self gratification. Motive. Revenge. Motive. Greed. Intoxicated by still wishing to become what she was never allowed to. Self-centered in nature and conniving. Because of her selfishness people also die. The culprit saw and made use of the red-herrings, and of  her role in this tale. Her obsession of becoming the head was everyone’s ruin.

Hideyoshi

Motive. Money. Motive. For his family. Hideyoshi always believed he was taken advantage of. He created alibis for his family regardless of the consequences. He wished to protect George but also prepare him to be ready for the real world. Believed that compared to him everyone else had it made. Why did it turn out this way?

Rosa

Motive. Self Gratification. Motive. Greed. Motive. Revenge.

Everything she loved was taken away from her to the point she broke. Bullied and hated since childhood and no meaningful relationships made her life a living hell.  Rosa needed to feel alive again by any means. Her self-hatred made a bigger hole in her heart creating a black witch. The gold and the promised of a lost love were the only thing kept her alive.

Kanon & Shannon

Motive. Love. Motive. Unknown. Motive. Duty. Motive. A promise. Motive. Revenge.

The furniture that vowed to follow their master’s orders. They kept many things a secret for their chance at a miracle of love. How many times was the culprit not caught because of it?

Genji, Kumasawa, Gohda, Dr. Nanjo, Genji

[suspects end]

a brief version of “why dunnit”.

First motive. Greed.

The siblings were desperate for money. This fact never changes. The only way they could get it was by solving the epitaph. They all need it because everyone lacked the funds. We theorize that everyone who was in need of the money did not solve the riddle prior to the family conference. Whether the gold was found or not only occurs once the family conference starts. After all the culprit could only check and trigger the device when he was on the island in the first place.

Second. Personal grudges.

All siblings as mentioned are hinted to have grudges either against the family or others: Eva, Rosa, Natsuhi, and Kyrie are example of it. A bruised ego, a horrible childhood, of being misunderstood, the embodiment of envy.  Financial gains. All Ushiromiya as follow have as financial gains as motive: Hideyoshi, Rudolf, Krauss.

The cousins’ motives are: Love, Greed, and Revenge. They were reunited after many years.  Jessica’s motive would be Love. I believe that’s clear. George’s motive would be a combination of the three. I believe we have already explained this. Maria believes in the existence of magic. She’ll do anything to preserve it even if it means lying. Battler.  Battler isn’t the culprit. We skip Battler’s turn because of this.

Servants
Motive. Greed, Love, Duty, Orders, Revenge. Orders to be carried out on that day. To be part of what they were fated for.

1st Stake
Based on the nature of the crimes it’d imply the culprit is a highly unstable person with deep regrets and disregard for human life. The culprit is well versed on the mystery genre either by his own or introduced to it by another party at some point. Should the culprit be the only one who carried out the crime he should be able to do everything from the start to the beginning. On the other hand, we can theorize it was the culprit who murder the victims but it was the accomplice who set up the closed rooms.

2nd Stake
The introduction of an accomplice either willingly or accidental plays out the part of providing false alibis and is of someone who is biased. It’s theorized to be this way

The accomplice is the one with all the knowledge on how to create a closed room murders.
The culprit the one with all the knowledge. A combination of the 1st and 2nd is possible, but emphasis on the 2nd is stressed. The culprit is the real villain of a mystery after all.

3rd Stake
Were the murders caused by the culprit only? We interpret the word “culprit” in two ways:

A killer with motives of his own.
The unchangeable killer in all arcs.
The mastermind behind the plot murders.

4th Stake
The culprit always knew the island from the start. The culprit has lived on the island a vast amount of time and is able to know where everything is. It has always been improbable to assume it was some stranger from the very start.

5th Stake
“The motive should be Greed”

Impossible to deny as a motive. Revoked for those who don’t fit these premises: All those unable to make use of the Gold in the first place. No “fake wills” by Kinzo are mentioned this means no servants could financially benefit from it. Not everyone can make use of the Gold. Only converted money as mentioned by the story is plausible. Without that card there’s no need for the culprit’s motive to be monetary unless he finds this card. Also the fact he willingly blows up the island can only mean he already got what he wanted. One can only assume the motive was monetary when the culprit has already reached his goal or that he has failed in the process therefore the explosion.

6th Stake
“The motive was Revenge”

So it was. Revenge against everyone, huh. Most of the characters are filled with regrets. Does it justify taking the lives of their loved ones? Under no normal circumstances a parent would kill his child or vice versa. Under no normal circumstances a person should kill another. Something must’ve previously triggered this. Guilt, fear of the police, moral.. there are factors that prevent such acts on top of others. Only when the culprit saw he could get away with it he would he would set out to carry out the crime – the family conference. The fact the bomb always explode indicates the culprit never had intentions of leaving the island alive or that he set it up in case he failed.

7th Stake
“Everyone had alibis; therefore it was impossible for them to the culprit.”

Alibis can be fabricated. The accomplice could be lying. Alibis can be created by tricking the other person into believing in a false alibi. It’s necessary to make case where it is impossible for them to be involved in the crime and designate a culprit to be other than that person to completely exonerate a suspect.

8th Stake
“Everyone could be the culprit”

Wrong. Under the premises of being impossible to logically believe a child to be able to carry out a massacre, if it were true then it’d become a work of fantasy. It’s unlikely for a character such as one with non-existent or limited involvement to the main story and Beatrice such as Gohda, Kumasawa, and Nanjo to turn out to be the main culprit of the story. While in a mystery novel such scenario is possible Umineko puts emphasis in the story part and understanding the core of the mystery and the motives. It’s wrong to assume such unconnected characters to result to be the culprit of this tragedy. Siblings, cousins, furniture – they’re all viable.

9th Stake
“The epitaph and murders and the other way around”

Only those who knew of the epitaph could carry out in the first place. This is no coincidence. It is purposely followed by the culprit or a third party is following them after the murders were committed to make it look like that. The culprit didn’t make the epitaph it was Kinzo. Only after Kinzo created the epitaph it was possible for the culprit to come up with it – any other thoughts were simply random thoughts on how the culprit would create this tragedy.  The plot murder idea only is constructed the moment Kinzo put up Beatrice’s portrait and the inscription along with the reward to anyone who solve the riddle.

10th Stake
“Locked room murders, limited master keys, supernatural forces, and mysterious letters”

Work of humans. A locked room? The chain was probably never properly set. The chain was broken before everyone got there. The murders weren’t committed in the said closed room but somewhere else. The culprit was hiding in the room the whole time and left afterward, the window was locked. Locked from the inside? The accomplice or the culprit came back to the scene of the crime and locked the windows himself from the inside after he committed the next twilights. If the possibility that it was possible create a closed room from the outside this can also be valid. It’s even possible to create a case when it wasn’t instant death a victim facilitated the recreation of the closed room himself out of his own will. It’s also possible the first group that found the closed room lied about it being locked room. The victim was never murdered in the first place.

11th Stake
“Impossible crimes can only be impossible therefore a witch did it”

Incorrect. An impossible crime can only be considered to be impossible for those who were unable to understand them. It’s due to our inability to see through the culprit’s tricks that “impossible” murders are created. A witch did it? Impossible. If a supernatural being was responsible for all crimes all these puzzles would be impossible to be solved in the first place. This is a solvable puzzle. There simply must be a TRICK.

There must be a human counterpart carrying out the murders even if a Witch in fact existed! With this we had already guaranteed for a human to fit the role of a culprit!

12th Stake
“Witch = Culprit vs. The Witch =/= Culprit.”

Beatrice is the creator of the game board then everything should go according to how constructs the game board. She decides who dies and in what order. True or false?

Debatable. Introducing the contradictory nature of the brutal murder against EP5 claims that the goal was never to scare or as implied to torture Battler. It is the human culprit whose role is to kill everyone on Rokkenjima because of the tragedy that must occur. It IS the Witch that hides this fact so the culprit’s identity or the “truth” she doesn’t want to be easily found because of certain reasons. Neither of them are never officially proclaim to red  to be the same, only that that both of them must reach the same “result.”

13th Stake
“Battler’s sin is connected to the culprit’s motive. The cause of tragedy must happen for a reason. Battler’s presence was the final piece to complete a perfect game without him there’s no ‘game’.”

It happens only because Battler returns. Had Battler not gone to Rokkenjima on that day he would’ve stayed with Ange. Had Battler not gone to Rokkenjima the tragedy, in likeliness, wouldn’t have taken place this thus the murders happens because of his return after six years. This indicates the culprit decided to carry out the murders because of him. The culprit either viewed Battler as a threat to his plans or the final piece to complete the perfect plan. Battler was the cause. The tragedy was the result.

It’ll be something if because of Battler a time loop was created.

14th Stake

“The man from nineteen years ago is the Witch. The man from nineteen years ago can turn out to be the culprit. We should already know this person’s identity.”

Otherwise Yasu. A character who isn’t supposed to be alive yet exists in one of the fragments. Yasu is an already existing character in the story. By this premise we theorize Yasu can only be a person around 19 years old.  No one notoriously older than him can be Yasu, this rules out all grownups who don’t fit this description among others.  The man from nineteen years ago is depicted genderless in the story and possibly quite androgynous in looks and voice.

Believing in that this character was never introduced before to the story (Mr. X) exonerates the rest of the suspects assuming this person is the only culprit. This, however, would be a violation of the rules because we hardly knew of his existence.

15th Stake
“The nature of Magic”

They are the other side of a coin which one hardly gets to see. Another you from another world, time and space. Though not the same person they are part of the same idea. We need not to debate this as long as it doesn’t interfere with the crimes.

16th Stake
“The Rules of the Mystery Genre are applicable.”

Most are followed, but not all. The game board is restricted to Knox’s Decalogue I trust. Van Dine rules are optional and considered a bonus or optional therefore there’s no rule demanding they should be followed. Those we avoid are those which go against Umineko’s tale because they’re impossible to work with in the first place. I repeat there are rules that are not to be broken otherwise this game would fall apart. Rules that make a puzzle solvable are those that apply. Rules that only restrict the mystery and make inflexible are not taken in consideration.

17th Stake
“Beatrice the Golden Witch”

The one that exists inside of cat box and doesn’t outside of a game board. Beatrice is a being that exists in the realm of magic. The belief that such being can exist is debatable so is the idea that it can materialize itself. Beatrice is the illusion which the human culprit hides behind. Everyone who acts the part of Beatrice and play the culprit until the cat box is opened. The Witch is a magical being created by fantasy who belong to the fantasy realm. Beatrice’s vessel is one characters we know as there should be a human counterpart for her as well.

18th Stake
“Magic is the shared Illusion”

Fantasy is the medium which other unscientific beings and multiple worlds are allowed to exists inside a cat box. Either in a pure form, a person belief, a forced delusion or the actual and real existence of magic. Because of the tragedy and the creation of a never opened cat box both fantasy and reality are possible to exist inside the same box. Magic can exist, but simply a human part responsible for the events must exist.

19th Stake
And the Culprit is human.

All evidence: Unknwon results EP6, closed circles and fake deaths, debatable Van Dine Rules, Split personalities, The Wich exists EP1, George & the culprit Jessica & the culprit, Van Dine rules & the servants, The Witch’s gold, Nano & magic, Butterfly brooch, Siesta Sisters, Mastermind behind the letters, Code 07151129, Of all Age & Natural deathAccidental Death, suicide cases, how the culprit obtained the stakes, Kinzo’s study, The man from 19 years ago’s identity, Of the Bloody Doorknob, The Material used, Hideyoshi’s involvement, Living Kinzo & Battler, All 10th Moves, All Episodics

Continue where a fictional October 5th is near the end of the day. Who is the culprit?